This is a graph of my all in luck today and yesterday. The blue line is what has happened and the red line represents what mathematically should happen over an infinite sample.
Friday - Bathed in silk for a $412 profit
Saturday - Puppy dogs and ice cream all day for a $426 profit
Sunday - kicked in the ass for $170 loss
Monday - kicked in the gonads by a very strong horse, definitely a thoroughbred for $500 loss.
The first 2 days of this weekend I was playing well, but also not getting unlucky. Not to say I was getting lucky, just I wasnt getting unlucky. I was also winning about 1/2 of the pots where I was a 50% favorite. The last 2 days I have been incredibly unlucky and I am losing about every pot I play where it is 50-50. In no way am I saying this is not fair or this doesnt happen to people. This is poker, shit happens, and I am sure that whatever bad luck I am experiencing right now I will have it happen 10 x worse about 30 more times to me. That being said, going over hands and graphs helps my confidence and also drives home the point that in poker luck plays a factor whether it be good or bad. Just ask Jamie Gold and Chris Moneymaker lol.
Here are some pots I lost when it was close to 50-50 or better
Hand 1:
I get it in as a 51-48 favorite
BB: $52.55
UTG: $42.85
UTG+1: $10.50
UTG+2: $20.45
MP1: $57.45
MP2: $50.75
CO: $69.30
Hero (BTN): $53.10
SB: $55.40
Pre-Flop: 7
5 dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks
Flop: ($3) J 4 5
(6 Players)
SB bets $2.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.50, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $52.60 and is All-In, 2 folds, CO calls $47.60
Turn: ($113.20) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($113.20) 4
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $113.20 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed A A
(two pair, Aces and Fours) and WON $110.20 (+$57.10 NET)
Hero mucked 7 5 and LOST (-$53.10 NET)
Hand 2:
I get it in as a 54-45 underdog
UTG+2: $49.25
MP1: $53.10
MP2: $62.80
CO: $57.30
BTN: $53.05
SB: $45.40
BB: $46.35
Hero (UTG): $58.10
UTG+1: $29.75
Pre-Flop: 9 K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.50, 5 folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop: ($4.75) 9 J Q (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3, BB raises to $44.85 and is All-In, Hero raises to $56.60 and is All-In, BTN folds
Turn: ($97.45) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($97.45) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $97.45 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB showed 8 T (a straight, Eight to Queen) and WON $94.45 (+$48.10 NET)
Hero mucked 9 K and LOST (-$46.35 NET)
Hand 3:
I get it in as a 50.5-49.5 underdog
MP2: $35.40
CO: $82.95
BTN: $50.30
SB: $31.25
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $50
UTG+1: $24.55
MP1: $70.65
Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($8) T 9 2 (5 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG+1 calls $5.50, 3 folds
Turn: ($19) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $18, UTG+1 calls $17.55 and is All-In
River: ($54.10) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $54.10 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero showed Q A (high card Ace) and LOST (-$24.55 NET)
UTG+1 showed T J (a pair of Tens) and WON $51.45 (+$26.90 NET)
Hand 4:
I get it in as a 61-38 favorite
UTG+1: $50
UTG+2: $79.95
MP1: $16.30
MP2: $50
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $73.55
SB: $73.75
BB: $27.55
UTG: $23.10
Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (BTN)
5 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $4
Flop: ($12.75) 2 6 9 (2 Players)
CO bets $5, Hero calls $5
Turn: ($22.75) 7 (2 Players)
CO bets $39 and is All-In, Hero calls $39
River: ($100.75) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $100.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed 8 A (a straight, Six to Ten) and WON $97.75 (+$47.75 NET)
Hero mucked J J and LOST (-$50 NET)
Hand 5:
I get it in as a 70-29 favorite
BB: $49.50
UTG: $47.75
UTG+1: $78.65
MP: $47.75
Hero (CO): $79.20
BTN: $45.50
SB: $58.65
Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, MP folds, Hero calls $2, 3 folds
Flop: ($4.75) 7 K 2 (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $7, UTG+1 raises to $76.65 and is All-In, Hero calls $69.65
Turn: ($158.05) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($158.05) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $158.05 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG+1 showed K A (a flush, Ace high) and WON $155.05 (+$76.40 NET)
Hero mucked 7 7 and LOST (-$78.65 NET)
Hand 6
I get it in as a 53-46 favorite
BTN: $50
SB: $77.85
BB: $10.25
UTG: $36.80
UTG+1: $23.05
UTG+2: $38.90
Hero (MP1): $96.35
MP2: $56.65
CO: $20.15
Pre-Flop: K T dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.75) 4 6 3 (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero raises to $53, UTG+1 calls $14.05 and is All-In
Turn: ($46.85) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($46.85) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $46.85 Pot ($2.30 Rake)
UTG+1 showed 4 A (two pair, Nines and Fours) and WON $44.55 (+$21.50 NET)
Hero mucked K T and LOST (-$23.05 NET)
Hand 7
I get it in as a 53-46 underdog
CO: $40.60
BTN: $50
SB: $39.70
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $69.55
UTG+1: $85.15
UTG+2: $98.20
MP1: $47.50
MP2: $41.45
Pre-Flop: 7 8 dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.50, 6 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($3.50) T Q 6 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises to $5, Hero raises to $27.50, SB calls $22.50
Turn: ($58.50) 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $10.70 and is All-In, Hero calls $10.70
River: ($79.90) 8 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $79.90 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed Q K (a pair of Queens) and WON $76.90 (+$37.20 NET)
Hero mucked 7 8 and LOST (-$39.70 NET)
Hand 8
We dont get the money in, but a large pot anyways, I called a very small river bet, but the turn is where most money went in and I was a 75-25 favorite
CO: $50
BTN: $47.75
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $49.50
UTG: $25.50
UTG+1: $38.75
UTG+2: $11
MP1: $42.10
MP2: $10.75
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds
Flop: ($4.50) 2 6 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50
Turn: ($9.50) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $13, UTG+1 calls $10.50
River: ($35.50) A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
Results: $44.50 Pot ($2.10 Rake)
Hero mucked K K and LOST (-$22 NET)
UTG+1 showed Q A (a pair of Aces) and WON $42.40 (+$20.40 NET)
Hand 9
I get it in as a 71-28 favorite
UTG+1: $125.15
Hero (UTG+2): $97.70
MP1: $26.05
MP2: $13.55
CO: $47.50
BTN: $40.25
SB: $53.25
BB: $53
UTG: $50
Pre-Flop: T J dealt to Hero (UTG+2)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($5.25) 9 J T (3 Players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $10, Hero raises to $96.20 and is All-In, BTN calls $28.75 and is All-In
Turn: ($82.75) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($82.75) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $82.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed T J (two pair, Jacks and Tens) and LOST (-$40.25 NET)
BTN showed A A (three of a kind, Aces) and WON $79.75 (+$39.50 NET)
Hand 10 (the worst of all as it was the largest pot)
I get it in as a 65-29-5 favorite
MP1: $38.80
MP2: $46.50
CO: $44.80
BTN: $48.75
SB: $54.35
Hero (BB): $58.35
UTG: $59.55
UTG+1: $30
UTG+2: $49.50
UTG+1 posts $0.50
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1, 3 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2
Flop: ($15.25) 9 Q A (5 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $16, BTN folds, Hero raises to $55.35 and is All-In, UTG raises to $56.55 and is All-In, CO calls $25.80 and is All-In
Turn: ($167.75) 6 (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($167.75) J (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $167.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO mucked A K and LOST (-$44.80 NET)
Hero showed 9 9 (three of a kind, Nines) and LOST (-$58.35 NET)
UTG showed 8 J (a flush, Ace high) and WON $164.75 (+$106.40 NET)
I need a drink...
BB: $52.55
UTG: $42.85
UTG+1: $10.50
UTG+2: $20.45
MP1: $57.45
MP2: $50.75
CO: $69.30
Hero (BTN): $53.10
SB: $55.40
Pre-Flop: 7
5 dealt to Hero (BTN)2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks
Flop: ($3) J
4 5 (6 Players)SB bets $2.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.50, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $52.60 and is All-In, 2 folds, CO calls $47.60
Turn: ($113.20) 2
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($113.20) 4
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $113.20 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed A
A (two pair, Aces and Fours) and WON $110.20 (+$57.10 NET)Hero mucked 7
5 and LOST (-$53.10 NET)Hand 2:
I get it in as a 54-45 underdog
UTG+2: $49.25
MP1: $53.10
MP2: $62.80
CO: $57.30
BTN: $53.05
SB: $45.40
BB: $46.35
Hero (UTG): $58.10
UTG+1: $29.75
Pre-Flop: 9
K dealt to Hero (UTG)Hero raises to $1.50, 5 folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop: ($4.75) 9
J Q (3 Players)BB checks, Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3, BB raises to $44.85 and is All-In, Hero raises to $56.60 and is All-In, BTN folds
Turn: ($97.45) 7
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($97.45) 9
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $97.45 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB showed 8
T (a straight, Eight to Queen) and WON $94.45 (+$48.10 NET)Hero mucked 9
K and LOST (-$46.35 NET)Hand 3:
I get it in as a 50.5-49.5 underdog
MP2: $35.40
CO: $82.95
BTN: $50.30
SB: $31.25
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $50
UTG+1: $24.55
MP1: $70.65
Pre-Flop: Q
A dealt to Hero (UTG)Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($8) T
9 2 (5 Players)SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG+1 calls $5.50, 3 folds
Turn: ($19) 7
(2 Players)Hero bets $18, UTG+1 calls $17.55 and is All-In
River: ($54.10) 3
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $54.10 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero showed Q
A (high card Ace) and LOST (-$24.55 NET)UTG+1 showed T
J (a pair of Tens) and WON $51.45 (+$26.90 NET)Hand 4:
I get it in as a 61-38 favorite
UTG+1: $50
UTG+2: $79.95
MP1: $16.30
MP2: $50
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $73.55
SB: $73.75
BB: $27.55
UTG: $23.10
Pre-Flop: J
J dealt to Hero (BTN)5 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $4
Flop: ($12.75) 2
6 9 (2 Players)CO bets $5, Hero calls $5
Turn: ($22.75) 7
(2 Players)CO bets $39 and is All-In, Hero calls $39
River: ($100.75) T
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $100.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed 8
A (a straight, Six to Ten) and WON $97.75 (+$47.75 NET)Hero mucked J
J and LOST (-$50 NET)Hand 5:
I get it in as a 70-29 favorite
BB: $49.50
UTG: $47.75
UTG+1: $78.65
MP: $47.75
Hero (CO): $79.20
BTN: $45.50
SB: $58.65
Pre-Flop: 7
7 dealt to Hero (CO)UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, MP folds, Hero calls $2, 3 folds
Flop: ($4.75) 7
K 2 (2 Players)UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $7, UTG+1 raises to $76.65 and is All-In, Hero calls $69.65
Turn: ($158.05) 4
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($158.05) 9
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $158.05 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG+1 showed K
A (a flush, Ace high) and WON $155.05 (+$76.40 NET)Hero mucked 7
7 and LOST (-$78.65 NET)Hand 6
I get it in as a 53-46 favorite
BTN: $50
SB: $77.85
BB: $10.25
UTG: $36.80
UTG+1: $23.05
UTG+2: $38.90
Hero (MP1): $96.35
MP2: $56.65
CO: $20.15
Pre-Flop: K
T dealt to Hero (MP1)UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.75) 4
6 3 (2 Players)UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero raises to $53, UTG+1 calls $14.05 and is All-In
Turn: ($46.85) 9
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($46.85) 9
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $46.85 Pot ($2.30 Rake)
UTG+1 showed 4
A (two pair, Nines and Fours) and WON $44.55 (+$21.50 NET)Hero mucked K
T and LOST (-$23.05 NET)Hand 7
I get it in as a 53-46 underdog
CO: $40.60
BTN: $50
SB: $39.70
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $69.55
UTG+1: $85.15
UTG+2: $98.20
MP1: $47.50
MP2: $41.45
Pre-Flop: 7
8 dealt to Hero (UTG)Hero raises to $1.50, 6 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop: ($3.50) T
Q 6 (2 Players)SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises to $5, Hero raises to $27.50, SB calls $22.50
Turn: ($58.50) 4
(2 Players)SB bets $10.70 and is All-In, Hero calls $10.70
River: ($79.90) 8
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $79.90 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed Q
K (a pair of Queens) and WON $76.90 (+$37.20 NET)Hero mucked 7
8 and LOST (-$39.70 NET)Hand 8
We dont get the money in, but a large pot anyways, I called a very small river bet, but the turn is where most money went in and I was a 75-25 favorite
CO: $50
BTN: $47.75
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $49.50
UTG: $25.50
UTG+1: $38.75
UTG+2: $11
MP1: $42.10
MP2: $10.75
Pre-Flop: K
K dealt to Hero (SB)UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds
Flop: ($4.50) 2
6 7 (2 Players)Hero bets $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50
Turn: ($9.50) 9
(2 Players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $13, UTG+1 calls $10.50
River: ($35.50) A
(2 Players)Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
Results: $44.50 Pot ($2.10 Rake)
Hero mucked K
K and LOST (-$22 NET)UTG+1 showed Q
A (a pair of Aces) and WON $42.40 (+$20.40 NET)Hand 9
I get it in as a 71-28 favorite
UTG+1: $125.15
Hero (UTG+2): $97.70
MP1: $26.05
MP2: $13.55
CO: $47.50
BTN: $40.25
SB: $53.25
BB: $53
UTG: $50
Pre-Flop: T
J dealt to Hero (UTG+2)2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($5.25) 9
J T (3 Players)Hero bets $3.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $10, Hero raises to $96.20 and is All-In, BTN calls $28.75 and is All-In
Turn: ($82.75) 4
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($82.75) A
(2 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $82.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed T
J (two pair, Jacks and Tens) and LOST (-$40.25 NET)BTN showed A
A (three of a kind, Aces) and WON $79.75 (+$39.50 NET)Hand 10 (the worst of all as it was the largest pot)
I get it in as a 65-29-5 favorite
MP1: $38.80
MP2: $46.50
CO: $44.80
BTN: $48.75
SB: $54.35
Hero (BB): $58.35
UTG: $59.55
UTG+1: $30
UTG+2: $49.50
UTG+1 posts $0.50
Pre-Flop: 9
9 dealt to Hero (BB)UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1, 3 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2
Flop: ($15.25) 9
Q A (5 Players)Hero checks, UTG bets $8, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $16, BTN folds, Hero raises to $55.35 and is All-In, UTG raises to $56.55 and is All-In, CO calls $25.80 and is All-In
Turn: ($167.75) 6
(3 Players - 1 is All-In)River: ($167.75) J
(3 Players - 1 is All-In)Results: $167.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO mucked A
K and LOST (-$44.80 NET)Hero showed 9
9 (three of a kind, Nines) and LOST (-$58.35 NET)UTG showed 8
J (a flush, Ace high) and WON $164.75 (+$106.40 NET)I need a drink...
