Thursday, December 21, 2006

Implied Odds In Motion - A Thing of Beauty

I am not sure if everyone is familiar with the term implied odds so I am going to put it in terms I understand them to be. Implied odds are the odds I am getting during a hand, but not from the pot, rather what WILL be in the pot. Case in point the following hand:

PokerStars Game #7543720111: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/12/21 - 16:56:33 (ET)Table 'Ani II' 6-max
Seat #4 is the button
Seat 4: Knightsridge ($91 in chips)
Seat 5: mfernandez01 ($26 in chips)
Seat 6: 1puttkid ($53.50 in chips)
mfernandez01: posts small blind $0.50
1puttkid: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Knightsridge [5d 8d]
Knightsridge: calls $1
mfernandez01: calls $0.50
1puttkid: raises $4 to $5
Knightsridge: calls $4
mfernandez01: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c Kh 5h]
1puttkid: bets $5
Knightsridge: calls $5
*** TURN *** [3c Kh 5h] [8s]
1puttkid: bets $10
Knightsridge: raises $20 to $30
1puttkid: raises $13.50 to $43.50 and is all-in
Knightsridge: calls $13.50
*** RIVER *** [3c Kh 5h 8s] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
1puttkid: shows [Ac Kc] (a pair of Kings)
Knightsridge: shows [5d 8d] (two pair, Eights and Fives)
Knightsridge collected $107 from pot

I love small suited connectors in cash games as the blinds never increase. I would much rather be putting my money in with 85 then AA after the flop because I know if I am putting my money in with 85 I have a great hand. AA on the other hand usually is unimproved and is tough to play on a board with straight and flush draws. (Not to say I would rather be dealt 85s then AA, just that if AA goes in I am usually only on AA, whereas with 85s 67s T8s, I will have a straight, two pair, or a straight flush draw...and if the money goes in with those hands, I am usually up against AA KK or AK) This hand for instance.

Prelfop I have 85s. I call the BB hoping for a good flop. The BB raises to $5 and I know I am up against AA KK QQ or AK. I had been playing with him for a little while and he was basic ABC poker. I love that. I call for implied value. If the flop misses me completely I spent $5 to win his stack of $53. If I do that ten times and win his stack once it is +EV. So I call and hit my 5, while he has probably hit his K. Now I realise that I put him on a possible KK, but the fact he came out betting both on the flop and turn I knew he didnt. (He had slow played once before after hitting a straight). So I now face a bet of $5. I know that if I hit an 8 or 5 I win everything he has as after I hit his AA or AK will not suspect 85. I hit my 8 and I stack him.

Now I know that his stack is a little smaller then I would have liked it to be. A perfect amount would be $70-$75, as paying $10 to win $50 is not as good as paying $10 to win $70, but with my stack of $91 I don't mind.

God I love poker.

Pokerstars Balance - 1,125.67

No comments: